blogger interrupted

When I was deciding how to specialize my political work, I decided to focus on GOTV (get out the vote).  As a field guy, this was natural – most field guys end up being GOTV guys, too.  But turnout decides the story, every time, and that’s where I wanted to be – able to effect the outcome at its most basic level.

Turnout varies every election, but some basic rules hold true.  Presidential general elections have the highest turnout.  After that, statewide midterms.  After that, primaries.  After that, off year, odd numbered, local elections.  After that, special elections, which produce the lowest turnouts of all.

That’s why NY-23 is the place that the teabaggers have decided to flex their puny muscles against a weakened GOP.  Turnout in NY-23 today will probably be the lowest turnout possible in a congressional election.  This will artificially inflate the relative strength of current teabagging hero Doug Hoffman, likely allowing Hoffman to win when otherwise he would fail miserably, largely on the back of a very tiny group of voters.

One may think it is folly for the Republican Party nationally to respond to such a low turnout result.  That would assume the Republican Party is sane.  They aren’t, and haven’t been for some time.  Republicans over a period of decades have embedded into their DNA a knee jerk response to the loudest, most unhinged fringe of their party.  So rather than looking at such an election as a low turnout aberration, as would be reasonable, Republicans have set themselves up to be most vulnerable to fringe extremes in precisely the situation that a fringe extreme can scare them the most.

And like all good Republican clusterfucks, it translates upward and nationally, wildly exaggerating a largely benign situation into an existential crisis.  Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of fools.