blogger interrupted

Lee Fisher just tipped his hand – he’s in big trouble in Cuyahoga County, and his endorsement yesterday of Issue 6 is proof positive.

On the substance – I’ve decided to vote against both Cuyahoga reform Issues 5 & 6.  Neither of them are sufficiently understandable to me, an obsessive political addict – I can’t imagine how they must look to the average off year voter in Cuyahoga County.  And each is backed by one side of the same repulsively opportunistic coin.  Vote NO on both.

However, it seems Lee Fisher thinks he’s smarter than all of us, so he endorsed Issue 6 – siding with Bill Mason, the Plain Dealer, and the Republican Party.  This is the first time I’ve ever heard of Lee Fisher taking any stand on anything in Cuyahoga County government, and for this weighty occasion, Lee sides with Republicans, against a good chunk of the Democratic Party power base, including Peter Lawson Jones, labor, Hispanics, and the black community.  No wonder Cuyahoga County Democrats can’t stand Lee.  Lee’s been AWOL his entire career in Cuyahoga County politics, and 5 days before an election, Lee wades into a briar patch that pisses off the exact voters he needs in May.

It’s bizarre.  What’s the upside for Lee?  After racking my brain for some time, it appears to me that Lee is trying to shore up the west side of Cuyahoga County, where Issue 6 is likely to do best – among white ethnic west siders in Bill Mason’s greater Parma power base, and among Republicans.  Why would Lee be looking to the west side?

You could argue that Lee is just trying to expand his base from east to west, in advance of an expected general election, sure.  It’s not beyond Lee’s considerable incompetence to make that leap beyond a primary he is surely facing in May.  But no – I actually think Lee is finally coming to grips with this May primary – making this move, this late in the game, with this much weirdness surrounding it, means Lee’s chief response to that realization is panic.

My gut tells me that Lee is abandoning the east side, and particularly the black vote.  Guess who’s running the Issue 5 campaign, the one Lee just endorsed against – Alan Melamed, Lee’s own consultant.  Melamed knows just how the Cuyahoga County electorate is cutting for Lee, and if Melamed thought Lee would get any bump at all in May from endorsing Issue 5, Lee would have endorsed Issue 5.  He didn’t.  Which tells me that both Melamed and Lee see no upside courting east side blacks.

Which tells me Lee is in trouble in his own home county, which also happens to be the biggest chunk of votes in a Democratic primary in Ohio.  Which means that if Jennifer Brunner files for the May primary, Lee loses.

Bank on it.