blogger interrupted

I think it’s time to jump back into the Fisher v. Brunner primary, with a little reality check.  So much of the current hand wringing about whether or not Brunner will get out, or be forced out, is so predictable, I have hesitated pointing it out.  But I’m finally tiring of it.

Look – we all knew that Jennifer Brunner would come under enormous pressure to get out from the minute she announced in February.  We also knew Lee would outraise her.  We also knew that the longer she stayed in, the more Lee would outraise her, and the stronger the pressure to get out.  What Lee and ODP are banking on is that Jennifer will blink.  And donors are waiting to see if she does.

Well, duh.  The recent spate of statewide Dems getting into primaries, only to get out before filing day, has created an atmosphere in which reasonable people actually wait to see if Candidate Whatever makes it to the ballot.  So many candidates have pulled this bait and switch, that I actually said to Jennifer Brunner once, in person, on the phone, that I want to see if she’s in this thing for good before I support her.  Jennifer assured me she was.  I waited months to decide for myself that yes, she is in the race for good.

Not everyone in the blogosphere, or the party, or for that matter the donor base, is ready to make that call, because of this history of people getting in, only to get out.  Why give your money to a candidate who you actually believe is not going to make it to the ballot?

Given this, my take on today’s fundraising news?  Lee is continuing to raise less each quarter.  Jennifer is raising enough to stay in.  And here’s what’s gonna happen.  Jennifer is going to make it to the ballot.  Then her fundraising will blast off.  Then Lee will lose in May.

Period.