blogger interrupted

So the big news for me from Sunday was this comment on my blog.

Tim,I think you are really realy cute.

But then I saw that George Voinovich has retired, and suddenly, I was consumed by other news!  And you thought only the winter Olympics were happening in 2010!  Fools.

There’s been little handicapping of the race, aside from obvious names getting thrown around, probably because no one thought Voinovich would actually go.  So I’ll jump into that fray.  Someone just guilt-tripped me into writing about it.

Republicans – Portman ahoy!

Rob Portman is the only real name on the Republican side getting my attention, mostly because he seems detached from the insanity that has become the Ohio GOP, and has money.  John Kasich may run, and there is talk of a bargain to put Kasich against Strickland for governor.  But I doubt Kasich is much interested in getting a thorough vetting, which he’s never gone through.  Kasich won his safe seat in another cosmic time, when no one cared much about the stuff that Republicans now obsess over like twitching mental patients.   I don’t even see Kasich running for anything.  But I’ve been wrong before.  

So I think Portman is the guy.  Will he draw a primary?  Are Republicans obsessed with genitalia?  Of course he’ll draw a primary. State Auditor Mary Taylor has had her name thrown out, in a Sarah Palin sorta way, which of course means total Republican gratuitous pandering to a demographic that they have no intention of actually addressing.  Josh Mandel probably just double-ejaculated into his Marine uniform over the prospect, but a Jewish Republican from Cleveland ain’t goin’ nowhere downstate in a GOP primary.  Also, that political calculation to join the military, get votes, ain’t what it used to be in 2002.  There are always any number of recently booted out congressmen, plus the strange prospect of Steve Latourette, whose statewide attraction is that of a used prophylactic.

Throw in some deranged geezer in rural Ohio running against the radical homosexual agenda which of course will be represented in said guy’s view of Portman, somehow, no one will know why, and presto!  GOP fun for the whole family!  But Portman will win his primary.

Democrats – primary ahoy!

This is a bit complicated.  The careers of Lee Fisher and Tim Ryan have been on a collision course since 2006.  One of them is going to be in line in front of the other until at least 2014.  Fisher joined the ticket in 2006 for the sole purpose of running for governor or senate.  Time’s come to decide.  

Thus, I think Lee Fisher is probably this minute putting the finishing touches on his victory spee….er…I mean…announcement speech.  Problem for Lee is that, well, he’s Lee.  Boring to distraction, transparently careerist, has done little as Lt. Gov. to distinguish himself from Some Guy At The Bar, and utterly without any real rationale for running other than to run.  This will not energize Democrats.  

Plus, it’s an off year, Lee is Lee, and Portman will prove somewhat non-insane.  Ohio isn’t as blue as Lee thinks, especially in an off year.  So if Lee gets through a primary to the general, he will lose, you heard it here first. 

But that won’t stop Lee!  Oh, no, my friend.  If he loses to Portman, he will still be Lt. Gov. and still be in line to run for governor in 2014, having proven that no amount of statewide electoral failures can kill him.  Like a cockroach!  Only in Lee Fisher’s world is repeated losing a no-lose situation.

This means there isn’t any incentive for Tim Ryan to avoid Lee in a primary.  Lee will be standing there either this year for Senate, or in 2014 for governor.  If Tim wants it, he needs to go and get it.  Which he can do.  Tim Ryan is a force of nature, just waiting to point itself at the right target.  The question is, does he want it?  It’s awful comfy in the majority lately, in a safe seat, and who knows, Lee could surprise us all and win in 2010, thus leaving the road to governor more open for Tim in 2014.  I thought on Friday Tim would run, but I’m not so sure today.  Running and losing is Lee’s style, not Tim Ryan’s.

Talk of Jennifer Brunner is interesting.  I don’t think she should be scared of a primary against Lee, either. She would engage Democrats from the starting gun, especially online.  Cordray’s name got dropped in this Dispatch piece, but for God’s sake, could you sit still for 35 seconds, Rich?  Maybe let the ink dry on your oath of office?  I mean, really.  I can see a few Cuyahoga types tossing their names around, but that would only gum up the works.

Bottom line, I think Lee is in, and it will be up to others to decide if they want to beat him.  Someone will probably try, unless Chris Redfern and Ted Strickland stitch it up for Lee.  Not sure if that will work out, given how big everyone’s head has become in the Ohio Democratic Party.  Back room deals are harder to make now.

Final Note on Ohio blogosphere and 2010

I think 2010 has the chance prove as useful to the development of the Ohiosphere as 2006 became.  All depends who runs.  But if there is a primary, that primary will now begin in the blogosphere – 2006 set that precedent, and it ain’t changing.  Moreover, grassroots activists in Ohio who were energized by Barack Obama, online, haven’t gone anywhere, and they are probably going to stretch their muscles a bit in 2010, also online.  If any of these candidates think they can waltz through 18 months of silence, show up at the local PBS station for a debate, and that’s their vetting, they are dreaming.

Enjoy the show!