US – Impotent.
Tue, Aug 12, 2008
Look closely at this map. I know, it’s hard to make sense of something which, like every Republican blogger on the planet, you haven’t ever seen before. What don’t you see here?
American power, that’s what.
Russian President Medvedev announced today, almost as if he had finished shopping at Target, that Russian military operations in Georgia are over, thank you very much. The status quo prior to today, a Georgia whose territorial integrity was intact, is gone. What is left are vast swaths of Georgia occupied by Russian troops. As with this military operation, those troops will leave when Russia pleases. Which means never.
George W. Bush and John McCain, as is always the case, both ended up on the same page eventually – blustering their way to bellicose rhetoric, in the face of a Russia whose timetable was wholly Russian. On this map, if you can point out any spot where American influence could have, would have, or ever has resided during this Bush administration, I will refrain from laughing at the hysterics displayed in the Rose Garden yesterday.
Georgia paid the price for the Bush-McCain failed foreign policy. Georgia bought into the Bush democracy tonic, assuming that behind it lie more than rhetoric. That led to Georgian miscalculation over South Ossetia, a “breakaway” region that isn’t even on the top of the “breakaway region” list in Georgia, let alone the rest of the Caucasus. This sparked wildly disproportionate Russian overreaction…is there any other kind?
What have we learned? We, being Russia, the US, and former soviet republics that bought into the failed Bush-McCain policy? We have learned that Russia is completely unhindered in its near abroad. We have learned that American policy cannot be backed up with American power. We have learned that vulnerable new democracies among the former soviet republics are at the mercy of Russia’s whims. And we have learned that the price in blood, when Russia decides to test this situation again, will be quite high. And there is literally nothing that will stop Russia from repeating this episode in any number of former soviet republics.
The only way to reverse this situation is to elect Barack Obama president. That may sound convenient for an Obama supporter, but it is plainly a fact. Because the only way American power will be restored to a point where a country like Georgia isn’t a sitting duck in Russian gunsights, is for America to get out of Iraq, escalate in Afghanistan with its allies, defeat Al Queda, restore American diplomatic influence, American military flexibility, and American credibility in the world.
None of this will happen with John McCain as president. In fact, the impotence of US policy in the face of Russian, or any other country’s, petulance, will get worse under a McCain administration.
If the neocon Republican blogosphere had a self-aware bone in its body, they all should be feeling as betrayed by George W. Bush’s “policy” as the Georgian refugees fleeing Russian bombs. But no – the cheering of Bush’s chest-thumping is imminent. Bloggers whose knowledge of Georgia, or Russia, or the post soviet republics is limited to having seen The Hunt For Red October will again wallow in the pride of their ignorance.
Which is fine. Chest-thumping ignorance is the preferred realm of the neocon policy-maker, why on earth would their blogger sycophants bother to raise that bar? The road from Tbilisi to Yerevan, a narrow mountain passage I’ve passed many times, is today choked with refugees who now wait 5 hours at the remote border crossing into Armenia to flee the logical conclusion which flows from that ignorance. At least some of us are aware of it.
But American voters will look at this situation and wonder how on earth we became so utterly impotent in the face of a clear challenge to American interests. And I’m pretty sure they’ll figure out who to blame.
August 12th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Thank you for this insightful analysis – the first one I’ve read or seen that actually explains the situation clearly and succinctly.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:23 am
While I agree with your macro point, it is geography, rather than Bush that renders us impotent. We have no troops nearby, nor are we ever going to have them. NATO will never have a substantial presence nearby, either.
But, definitely, elect Obama. He ould not have put us in the position of making bogus, unenforceable promises in the first place.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
As yet another fine mess President Bush has led us into. When are Republicans going to wake up, jump the GOP ship and get on board the Obama train??? And why hasn’t both Bush and Cheney been impeached??? How much more can they both do in their final months of their administration to shame America’s good name in the world?
August 12th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Shalom Tim,
Yes, foreign policy will make a lot more sense under a President Obama, but that won’t fix Georgia because the United States will not risk nuclear war for Georgians.
The names have changed from the ’70s and ’80s when I was a Kremlin watcher, but the personalities and politics haven’t.
We kicked the Hungarians to the curb in 1956; we told the Czechs to take a flying leap in 1968 and even the Republican demigod President Ronald Reagan muttered something about needing to feed the horses in 1981 when Polish Prime Minister and Soviet puppet Wojciech Witold Jaruzelski declared martial law.
We make a great deal about being the last Superpower standing, but the
SovietRussian Bear is far from toothless.The Greater Russia hegemony is alive and thriving.
B’shalom,
Jeff
August 12th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Good points.
“escalate in Afghanistan with its allies, defeat Al Queda, restore American diplomatic influence, American military flexibility, and American credibility in the world.”
August 12th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
I was talking to the better half this morning and asked if she knew what this whole Russia-Georgia conflict amounted to. As she has learned to do over the years, she shook her head and I proceeded to inform her it amounted to Russia saying to the USA: “Whatcha gonna do about it?!” (imagine my best Russian-New Yorker accent here) hehe
And that, my friends, is how it *should* be. Let’s not forget who started this crap the other day. Whatcha gonna do about it?
March 16th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
I don’t normally comment on blogs but your post was a real help. Thank you for a great topic, I will be sure to bookmark your site and check it out again. Cheers, Amy xXx.