blogger interrupted

Aside from lifting a speech from Wikipedia, and repeatedly mispronouncing the Georgian president’s name, John McCain’s response to Russia’s increasingly aggressive invasion into Georgia really amounts to speaking loudly and carrying no stick.  And that’s because of George W. Bush.

In a world without the Bush foreign policy, the US would have destroyed Al Queda in Afghanistan, and would now be reaping the rewards of a universally applauded military success.  There would not be 150,000 troops tied down in Iraq.  And there would be no incentive for Russia to test US resolve with a blatant power play in the Caucasus.  In other words, this situation would never have taken place.  

And if Russia had invaded Georgia anyway, the nearest NATO ally, Turkey, would not have a Kurdish problem in Iraq to deal with, nor would have refused US troop access for the Iraq invasion, and would be the first place a US military reaction would be staged.  The US would be able to move troops into Turkey on a moment’s notice, either for a show of force, or for an eventual use of it.  And Russia would necessarily back down.

Alas.  

Iraq did happen.

And US interests in Georgia are at its mercy.

Iraq has tied US hands on foreign policy in so many ways, it’s impossible to count, but Georgia is a great microcosm of it.  Our military is stretched thin to near breaking point.  Our political clout worldwide is non-existent.  Our allies ignore our entreaties for help on almost all matters geopolitical, let alone military.  And all this combines to leave American policy impotent when a close US ally like Georgia is targeted for the latest round of Russian chest thumping.  

McCain’s response has been his own chest-thumping, which both begs the question “what can we do” and reveals that we can’t do anything.  If Russia wanted to occupy the entire country of Georgia, and keep going all the way through Armenia and Azerbaijan to the Turkish border, the US would be powerless to stop it, thanks to the Bush foreign policy.

What should we do now?  I spent nearly 2 years working in politics in the Caucasus, I understand what’s going on there better than most, and frankly, I can’t really come up with anything that would stop Russia in the short term.  There are no real options, and Russia knows this.  But given that Georgia sits atop a powder keg in the Caucasus, something has to happen to lay out clear lines which the Russian’s should know not to cross.

Here’s my best thought.  A ceasefire should be negotiated fast.  This will be difficult, given the above state of affairs.  But aggressive, rapid diplomacy, from all corners, including Europe, the UN, neighboring countries, even China, must begin, so that Russia is well aware that they are making a major miscalculation.  Then, the EU and NATO can work with the UN to place peacekeepers along whatever lines exist on the ground.  There are already UN peacekeepers in Georgia, the lines of diplomacy and infrastructure required to put more UN peacekeepers in place exist.

The US is really in a bind here, thanks to the Bush foreign policy which John McCain parrots today, clumsily and with utter ignorance of the facts on the ground.  The way out requires precisely the opposite of what a McCain presidency would deliver.