On Georgia vs. Russia, and Obama vs. McCain
Sat, Aug 9, 2008
I watch the former Soviet republics closely. Having spent more than 2 years living and working there, it’s in my blood now. So when the flare up started in South Ossetia, it caught my eye.
The Cliffs Notes version of what’s going on there?
It’s a clusterfuck. Has been for over 15 years.
That is not an attempt to minimize anything, it’s just a fact. I lived in Tbilisi for a few months, did work there on many other occasions, and all I can tell you with any real understanding on my part is that South Ossetia is only one of at least 3 “breakaway” republics in Georgia, whose “breakaway” status is only recognized by Russia, because Russia likes to play games in Georgia. They have since 1917.
Stalin was Georgian, and as such, knew just how much the various ethnic groups in his native land hated each other. So as the Communist Party guy in charge of map-making early in the Soviet Union, Stalin drew the boundaries of the Caucasus just absurdly enough to keep ethnic tensions on the boil, making a strong Soviet presence desired by all concerned.
Old Soviet habits have died hard, some not at all. And this Russian tendency to play games like this in Georgia, or Armenia, or Ukraine, or Belarus, or name-your-republic, isn’t dead at all. It happens to be the one sure source of ethnic jingoism any Russian leader can turn to when he needs it domestically. See Chechnya.
So I can see the tendency for an American senator to take a strident anti-Russian stand, as McCain has done. The fact that a McCain adviser is a lobbyist for Georgia just adds fuel to that fire - standing up loudly for Georgia feels good, seems right, and has historic parallel. And it’s good for the lobbyist’s client.
For me, I love Georgia, it is a wonderful place, beautiful, great food, great wine, (you should visit), and I love Georgians. I still have friends there, I have warm memories there, and I root for Georgia all the time. I hope they get into NATO, or the EU, or something that brings them closer to the west. And it is laughable to suggest that any military flare-up in the region isn’t begun largely by Russia. So I am certainly on their side here.
However.
No one in the post-soviet sphere despises Russians more than Georgians. No one. I’ve been to more than half a dozen post-soviet republics, and the only place where Russia-hate is as strong is in Latvia, which is not surprising. But Georgians take no back seat on this front.
And this Russia-hate has colored their foreign policy far too starkly. It has led to provocative cease fire violations for more than a decade, not just in South Ossetia, but Abkhazia and Adjara, the two other most problematic regions. It has also led to somewhat unnecessarily stilted economic relations with a neighbor, Russia, who is simply too big to be nose-tweeking needlessly.
Which is why, of course, the Obama presidency is needed. Georgia could become a microcosm of the foreign policy debate this year - a Bush-McCain policy, dominated by knee jerk platitudes, vs. the diplomatic seriousness of Barack Obama, dominated by an increasingly obvious instinct to negotiate. The consequences in the Caucasus could be far reaching, and be yet another repeat of cowboy diplomacy spinning out of American control.
Here’s how.
If you take sides in South Ossetia against Russia, Russia is provoked. Russia does not want to be seen domestically as standing down when an American president (let alone a presidential candidate) cries foul. Russia will escalate, and that escalation will be clumsy, heavy handed, and bloody. Russian troops are largely starved, underpaid, over-liquored, under-trained, and easily misled.
That clumsy escalation will not limit itself to South Ossetia. Adjara, and Abkhazia are equally tenuously held regions of Georgia, which suffer from the same Russia meddling, and which have had the same Russian military presence, on and off, for 17 years.
Thus will be lit a tinderbox. The 3 “breakaway” republics in Georgia are not the only ones on a knife edge. There are Georgian republics bordering Chechnya that teeter, an Armenian populated region in the south which simmers, all of which keep one eye on stability and another on opportunity to take advantage of a weakening Tbilisi. To the south is Armenia, led by a military dictator, whose army sits in occupation of a large chunk of neighboring Azerbaijan, also led by a dictator, and also armed to the teeth.
Did I mention that both Armenia and Azerbaijan border Iran? And oh yeah, the main pipeline moving Azeri oil to market goes through Georgia.
Dominoes could fall in the Caucasus rapidly, and with a lot of blood, and inflationary effects on the price of oil, if the US plays the cards it is dealt the way John McCain seeks to play them. Even the Bush administration, in weary lame-duck status, sees this differently than John McCain, their statement being similar to Obama’s.
Bottom line, this situation requires clear-eyed and urgent diplomacy to make it stop. If it doesn’t stop soon, no one can predict where the end game lies. John McCain may need to shore up his base by pandering to the Instapundit democracy-as-tonic wannabes, but it will not save anyone’s democracy, and may imperil democracy in places other than Georgia.
And Republican spawned, unpredictable end games sure have gotten us far, haven’t they?
Popularity: 13% [?]
Tags: barack obama, georgia, john mccain, nato, russia
August 10th, 2008 at 1:53 am
TO:
RE: Obama v. Russian Aggression
“….the diplomatic seriousness of Barack Obama, dominated by an increasingly obvious instinct to negotiate. The consequences in the Caucasus could be far reaching, and be yet another repeat of cowboy diplomacy spinning out of American control.
Here’s how.
If you take sides in South Ossetia against Russia, Russia is provoked. Russia does not want to be seen domestically as standing down when an American president (let alone a presidential candidate) cries foul. Russia will escalate, and that escalation will be clumsy, heavy handed, and bloody.” — Whomever
Obama? Serious? The fellow can’t make up his public platform one-way-or-another on just about every subject.
Russia, no matter whether it is Czarist, Communist or Putinist, has always wanted to extend its control/influence south to the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. They’ll do it no matter WHO is in the Oval Office and there’s damned little anyone there can do, if they move quickly. Obama, least of all.
I think Dean Acheson a Democrat SecState put it best when he said….
“No people in history have ever survived, who thought they could protect their freedom by making themselves inoffensive to their enemies.”
And Obama, who says one thing to one group and the opposite to another, is the epitome of what the SecState for the last good Democrat administration this country had warned US about.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid. — Dwight D. Eisenhower]
August 10th, 2008 at 2:10 am
P.S. Lest I forget….
…in 1976 the Democrats got another spinless fellow in the Oval Office. That didn’t work out so well. Will we have to relive our history with Obama?
[If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience! — George Bernard Shaw]
August 10th, 2008 at 8:49 am
This is extraordinary. Russia invades a neighbor in a clear case of energy-motivated imperialism, and the American left is worried that US Republicans are too aggressive. It’s like a caricature, except not funny.
August 10th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Oh please. McCain’s response was a mild rebuke. Perhaps we should neuter our politicians entirely, and prevent them from uttering anything louder than a nursery rhyme?
August 10th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
“No people in history have ever survived, who thought they could protect their freedom by making themselves inoffensive to their enemies.”
So Russia is our enemy?
And we Republicans should allow people like you to remain in the leadership of the Republican Party after its defeat in November?
Russians are our enemy because of a border dispute with someone else?
You would protect a friend from harm while he is shooting at a dozen armed men against your wishes?
Or do you think it would have been smart if Bush told the Georgians to go ahead and attack a superpower’s wards?
Russians are our enemy because they are doing exactly what we did in Kosovo?
Would McCain, if here were President instead of Bush, send in Special Forces on the sly to fry Russian men into blackened corpses?
That would be a good thing?
Are you aware that the Russians are now checking corpses and finding what they think might be Americans? What kind of US soldier would be stupid enough to attack Russian soldiers?
I hope you didn’t just advertise to Russian consulates that they should consider your words on your next visa application to what will be the largest market for American products in the world soon.
A businessman does not call his largest market his enemy.
FYI: The Russians are anti-communist now. We are supposed to be admired by the world together as two conservative superpowers. But the USA has chosen to go liberal and neoconservative (liberal lite) and to disparage what should be its greatest ally.
August 10th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Er, yeah, but meanwhile, Obama has now slid over to match McCain’s stance.
August 11th, 2008 at 7:23 am
TO: All
RE: Heh
“Russia says it will not move troops beyond breakaway provinces….” — Fox News
Used to be just ONE province.
Why am I suddenly reminded of Sudatenland 1939?
Regards,
Chuck(le)
August 11th, 2008 at 10:28 am
why are you suddenly reminded of the sudetenland? because you’re an idiot. heh.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Things that make you go hummmm…..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2531132/Geogia-Oil-pipelines-at-risk.html
Georgia: Oil pipelines at risk
The gas and oil pipelines that run through Georgia are of strategic importance to Western Europe because they reduce dependence on Russian supplies and do not cross Russian territory.
By Juliette Garside
Last Updated: 12:43PM BST 10 Aug 2008
The gas and oil pipelines that run through Georgia are of strategic importance to Western Europe because they reduce dependence on Russian supplies and do not cross Russian territory.
Two major pipelines take supplies from the oil and gas fields in the Azeri region of the Caspian Sea through the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. From there they head south, away from the breakaway South Ossetia region and into Turkey, then onwards into the European Union.
Georgia and other transit states have an obligation to ensure the security of the pipelines that run through their territories.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, led by BP, was opened in 2006 and is capable of pumping one million barrels per day of Azeri crude along the 1,040-mile route to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It is the first pipeline to carry large volumes of crude out of the Caspian without going through Russia. Yesterday Russian war planes dropped bombs near the pipeline, but caused no damage.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline, operated by BP and Norway’s StatoilHydro, began gas exports to Turkey in 2007 and will be able to carry 20 billion cubic metres a year.
Russia’s vast natural reserves have allowed it to position itself as a rival to Middle Eastern nations in supplying energy to the West. However, its hostility to BP and Shell, which had supplied investment to begin exploiting its resources, have spurred Europe to look for alternatives. Russia demonstrated its might in January 2006 when it cut off gas supplies to Ukraine after a dispute over costs.
Ukraine not only relies on Russian supplies but is also a major pipeline route into Europe.
Juliette Garside
August 12th, 2008 at 1:20 am
Disclaimer: Libertarian who can’t stand McCain or Obama.
Putin needs to understand the consequence of his actions. Aggression in Georgia legitimizes our aggression against Iran. They represent a threat to Russia, Iran has been a substantiated threat against us. Legitimize one retaliation and you authorize the other.
Putin’s no more than a sociopathic thug. He’s of the “if you have a sandwich and I have a gun, I have a sandwich and a gun” school. He played Bush successfully and led the current president into believing he had a connection with an honest man. G.W. can resign now and save us the trouble. The only method of dealing with these thugs is to make their efforts have a negative net worth.
August 16th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
TO: Tim Russo
RE: Why?
“why are you suddenly reminded of the sudetenland? because you’re an idiot. heh.” — Tim Russo
No. For a couple of reasons:
[1] Because my studies in history are apparently better than yours.
[2] My military career [27 years in the infantry] taught me more about history than you’ve apparently learned.
[3] And the apparent fact that my IQ is somewhat greater than yours.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. Show me your Mensa membership ID number and I’ll call you ‘bro’.