blogger interrupted

John McCain’s chief foreign policy advisor lobbied for Georgia as recently as March.  Josh Marshall points out….

Scheunemann’s ‘policy’ was to get the Georgians ginned up on the idea that we were their close military allies and we’d come to their rescue if their brinksmanship with the Russians went bad. Well, that didn’t work out very well. Any situation where you start the shooting and then find yourself begging for a ceasefire within 48 hours is a major blunder. He’s not an ‘expert’ on Georgia, he’s the lead guy on the policy that got us into this situation. And the fact that John McCain would make him his chief policy advisor after he’s been the conductor on so many trainwrecks should tell us all we need to know about Sen. McCain’s foreign policy judgment.

OK, bear with me here.  Here’s your Georgia briefing.  I use quotes heavily, because the quoted terms mean one thing to Russia, and another to everyone else.

Russia has meddled in Georgian affairs since the fall of the Soviet Union, chiefly through the staging areas of what it calls “breakaway” republics.  Adjara & Abkhazia have been the most problematic.  South Ossetia, until this week, was a very minor “breakaway” in the “breakaway” game, but a “breakaway” it has been.

Russian “peacekeepers” in these republics are seen as such only by Russia.  They are not peacekeepers in the UN sense of the word, they are peacekeepers in the Serbs-in-Bosnia sense – they are there on some bogus argument that Ossetians, or Adjarans, or Abkhazians, demand “freedom”, and need “protection.”  In this sense, the simpleton analogy to pre-war Sudetenland is not only sought by Russia, but actively implemented, by Russian boots on the ground.  I never met a Georgian in Georgia or a Russian in Russia who could tell me the difference between an Ossetian and a Georgian that would justify the need for their own Ossetia.   For the most part, the notion of “breakaway” republics in Georgia is largely, though not entirely, a Russian invention to justify Russian troops on Georgian soil.

And there these troops have sat for over 15 years.  Successive Russian governments, first Ghamsakurdia’s, then Schevardnadze’s, alternately played ball with Russia, or confronted Russia, on these republics.  The current president, Saakashvilli, is not playing ball, at all.  He is a Georgian nationalist, and wants Russia out.  Thus, Russia has sought in various ways to get rid of Saakashvilli, covertly, through economic blockade, and overtly as they are now.  

Russia’s end game may not be occupation of Georgia, but it certainly is a more pliant Georgia, one that will not be an ally of the west on Russia’s southern border, straddling oil pipelines.  

THIS IS WHERE SCHEUNEMANN COMES IN.  PAY ATTENTION.

Georgia lobbies the US Congress and the White House using this oil argument, in order to get military training, access to NATO and EU membership tracks, and various other congressionally appropriated funds that help rebuild its economy and maintain its independence.  A lobbyist for Georgia on Capitol Hill is unlikely to see shades of grey in these “breakaway” areas, as indeed there may not be, but also because it panders to a congressman’s inbuilt, Cold-War-style thinking about Russia, their Bush-fed “democracy” hoo-ha, and their utter ignorance of the region.  Russia has not helped itself lately, but the case for Georgia on Capitol Hill is going to be made in stark terms to a willing audience.

Which is why it is no surprise to hear Scheunemann’s latest client, John McCain, say precisely the same thing that Georgian President Saakashvilli says, practically on the same day.  

Why is this bad for US policy?  Aren’t we with the good guys?

Because for this situation to be mediated to a successful conclusion, not just today’s immediate need for a cease fire, but the long term need for settlement of the various regions in the Caucasus that have needed settlement for 15 years – US involvement in mediation is required, must be seen to be neutral, and must IN FACT, BE NEUTRAL.  

John McCain has made it clear that he fails that test.  He not only is in the pocket of Georgia’s lobbyist, but he supports the Bush policy which gave Georgia the false impression that Bush talk meant Bush backup.  Georgia miscalculated.

It is also bad for the US, because as I’ve made clear, and as facts have made clear, neither the Bush administration, nor a successive McCain administration, has any intention, will, or means to back up their big fat mouths with anything other than platitudes.  

So in short, McCain’s foreign policy, as seen in the Georgia episode before us, is (a) beholden to a special interest, (b) a special interest that has direct access to McCain himself, and in fact is on McCain’s payroll, (c) operates without any understanding of the crisis before McCain, and (d) is toothless.

Russia has miscalculated in that they clumsily and heavy handedly overreacted (as they always do) to an obvious provocation in the short term, and now public opinion worldwide is against them.  But strategically, their calculation is hard to argue with.  They face McCain’s beholden, lobbyist-driven, ignorant, and toothless foreign policy already, in the name of George W. Bush.  Russia has a free hand.  They have now used it.

Welcome to the McCain State Department.