blogger interrupted

So Ohio is all over the map.  Yesterday PPP had Obama up 8, today, Rasmussen has McCain up 10.  The two polls seem even more irreconcilable when you look at independents.  PPP had Obama up 5 among indies, with 20% undecided.  Rasmussen’s indies?

However, McCain’s lead among unaffiliated voters jumps from a nine-point advantage without leaners to twenty-three points with leaners.

What gives?  Couple thoughts.  Sampling here in Ohio and turnout models are likely the culprit here.  Which means that turnout, as always, is going to win the state.  Second, I don’t know how either polling firm is sampling non-land-line phones, or modeling to account for them, but Ohio’s land line users are going to skew heavily old.  It’s not really possible to poll people who only use mobile phones…like myself.  

Either way, I think the bottom line is that the state is close.  

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