blogger interrupted

So various polls show a fairly consistent, but small, lead for Barack in Ohio over John McCain.  I’m inclined to believe the polls right now, but with a caveat.

None of these polls are capable of factoring in the turnout, which I’m going to predict will break records.  And the turnout will break records in precisely the places where Barack needs a high turnout – blacks and young voters.  

The temptation is to say that Ohio will go Barack big.  I’m a little bit worried about negative campaigning driving down turnout, but I suspect the level of insanity such negative campaigning will reach (muslim terrorist gay metrosexual heathen black dude) will only energize Barack’s core vote, rather than depress it.  

The other angle for the GOP in Ohio to worry about is the attorney general race.  As of right now, it doesn’t appear that the GOP will have a candidate (they still don’t have one at all) that will have name recognition, money, or the slightest chance of winning.  There will be no reason for the GOP to get organized around a candidate other than McCain.

And from what I’m hearing, McCain and the Ohio GOP are not on the same page yet, and may never be.  The backbone of the Bush victories in Ohio, evangelical wingnuttery, is so split and demoralized over McCain, turnout in that electorate could be very low indeed.  They certainly won’t be busting their asses for McCain to the extent they did for Bush in 2000, and 2004.  

So after this first round of Ohio general election polling, I feel confident predicting the next important round of polling, post-convention, will show a 10 point lead for Barack in Ohio in September.  By then, Obama’s money machine, and McCain’s inept campaign, may just make Ohio a deep, dark, lovely shade of blue.