blogger interrupted

Now that we are in presumptive nominee territory, I’m gonna hold off on my victory lap at least until Hillary drops out.  But make no mistake, I will be taking a victory lap.

In the meantime, I’m gonna lay out how Barack Obama can and will win Ohio.  He will take a big step in this regard with his VP pick, (who I think should be Jane Harman), but I’m gonna get down to the grassroots level here and put on my consultant hat for Ohio.  Let’s start with the obvious.

Unite the party.  The combined votes of Obama and Clinton from the March 4 primary, added to an average independent turnout for a Democrat in the fall, would win Ohio for Obama in a landslide.  As many have said, this lengthy primary has been good for Democrats, largely because of the activity at the grassroots that has occurred in every state.  If Obama can bring Ohio Hillary voters along, he wins the state.  That begs the question.

Reach out to, and campaign in,  white & rural Ohio.  Uniting the March 4 primary vote is hard, because of the race-baiting campaign that Hillary Clinton has run.  There are white voters in Ohio who have had their worst fears and hatreds stoked for months, quietly, and professionally.  They are not bad people, they aren’t racists or bigots, they are just susceptible to the insidious language of bigotry.  

And frankly, very few of them have ever met a black man.  In person.  And if they have, they haven’t spent anytime getting to know them, either literally or through a campaign.  When they do, their humanity shines through.  It’s a hurdle that ANY black man would have to face if he ever got this close to the presidency.  Barack needs to go to these places and be who he is.  That’s all.  He won’t get all the votes, but he will get the majority of the Clinton vote in the primary that was race-baited into thinking Barack is some kind of Muslim-Manchurian candidate.  

That means Kucinich’s 10th CD - white, blue collar, ethnic, and Catholic in the extreme.  It means Tim Ryan’s 17th CD.  It means Appalachia.  These are good, good people, who happen to be critical to winning Ohio for a Democrat.  They are people who don’t want to be bigots.  They need to be forced into acting on it.  Hillary’s done a fine job of that.  But that race-baiting effect only lasts for a while, it tends to dissolve over time, especially in a Democratic electorate, and especially if Barack is on the ground to battle it with reality when it starts coming again from John McCain.

Target exurbia with Iraq/Economy messaging.  Exurbia, the outer counties of sprawl fantasticness around every major city in Ohio, is the Achilles heal of the GOP.  Exurbia gave George W. Bush his Ohio win in 2004.  But these people are not necessarily GOP core voters.  They voted GOP in 2004 largely thanks to a 9/11 security hangover.  That has faded, and the Iraq war has taken over 9/11’s place in the security equation.  

If the Iraq war is going to move Bush 2004 voters to Obama 2008 in any place in Ohio, exurbia is PRECISELY the place it will happen.  It’s those people who have families and friends in Iraq.  And it’s those VOTERS who VOTED on security in 2004.  They are ripe for the picking.  Bombard them with direct mail on Iraq, on security, and tie it all to the economy.  Deploy door-to-door canvassers for hand-to-hand combat with the GOP, on every door step.  We can win those votes if we fight for them.  

Inner city GOTV infrastructure.  Barack Obama can literally double, perhaps triple, perhaps more, the black turnout in the inner cities in November.  No one has any idea how big that uptick will be, and he can do that without lifting a finger.  And there is no predicting how that will play out on the ground.  There are two things the Obama campaign, and the ODP in particular, need to do to make this work for Barack.

Don’t count on that uptick in turnout.  Make it happen, and maximize it.  Whether or not street money is deployed, there needs to be an infrastructure designed to move record numbers of people, from historically 10% turnout precincts, to polling places.  If that turnout goes from 10% to 20% or higher, that brings us to the next happy problem we’d all love to have.

Be prepared for the heavy turnout, legally and politically.  Some of these precincts are chaos in a run-of-the-mill heavy turnout.  If you double the turnout this fall, let alone triple it, there will be utter insanity.  This means a vigorous voter protection program, voter education, and legal strategies to make sure every single person who contributes to this record black turnout will vote.  

That will be a huge challenge, but it’s non-negotiable.  This is where 400 years of American history will meet today’s reality of woefully unprepared polling places, especially in Cuyahoga County, and it’s the ODP’s and Barack’s campaign’s job, to make sure it ends well.

Stay positive.  You’ve come this far, Barack, without going negative.  Comparative ads on policy are not negative.  Keep that up.  But stay above the negative.  Voters want to see that you really are different.  Make every voter in Ohio, whether they vote for you or not, understand that this video, below, is what this election is about.  This time can be different.  And oh how different it will be.

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